Copyright © 2016 - 2020, The Troy Press
Copyright © 2016 - 2020, The Troy Press
This page is a part of our broader Covid-19 coverage:
The state's stay-at-home order started on April 1 and ended on April 30. It reopened certain businesses through much of the state on May 4 except in the counties of Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach. The Florida Keys will not reopen to visitors until at least June, county commissioners said.
Unfortunately, Florida has gone into and come out of lockdown and hasn't really stopped the first wave of infection. Florida's numbers are trending worse following lockdown's end, and continues as of this writing, June 6, to be at substantial risk of a significant rise in infections and deaths.
The only of these to ever drop is the number of active cases, which is bound to go down some day. So, other than active cases, it's the rate of change that's important. Most of our other graphs are focused on showing you these changes in the right scale since here, any squiggle from one day to the next is pretty well lost to the eye.
It's clear the total number of cases has started to rise again, and, of corse, active cases are also rising. Florida is now now out of lockdown nearly a week and the trend is for the worse.
This data shows that Florida is not doing well as it has come out of lockdown and is likely experiencing a continuation of the origial wave.
Unfortunately, this is confirmed by the doubling times showing an end to the otherwise nice rise in how long it takes for the number of cases to double. The next week or so will show us what to expect.
These data were created by taking the daily values for the data used to create the Totals graph above, and comparing with the previous day's value and computing the difference. New Cases and Newly Active cases closely match most of the time and this is because testing is nearly exclusively being done on those people who present themselves for health care. (And, folks, this is definitely "doing it wrong.") However, when people recover (or die), that also has an impact on the daily changes to the number of active cases, and therefore the change from one day to the next which drives how these data are collected.
Initially Post-Lockdown, Florida's gently lowering the numbers of cases showing up in its medical facilities was good. The huge negative spike in newly active cases along with a big spike in recoveries was a VERY notable occurance. The USA as a whole experienced a similar thing around May 12 and Florida contributed to it. This is the kind of thing we're hoping to see in the numbers everwhere and a lot more frequently. However, Florida hasn't seen a significant repeat, only a much more modest pair of spikes around May 26.
Since lockdown ended, however, it's a different story. In less than a week we can see a troubling trend of both New Cases and New Active Cases.
The purpose of this graph is to show two values also shown on the "Totals" graph above with much better scaling. These are the total deaths and the total recovered cases.
The "New" lines are all shown with better scaling in the graph above, and are included here for better comparison with total recoveries and deaths.
The recovered cases line is basically horizontal for a while because of how long people are sick before recovering; it takes a while before there are significant numbers of people recovering, which we see begin to happen in big numbers around May 12. But, puzzling, is, unlike other states, there are some recoveries in notable numbers a full month apart and not more regularly? It's not as if everyone got sick on the same day, so that needs some explaining.
Here we see the unsurprising correlation between new recoveries and a huge increase in the total recovered cases, with a corresponding, but not as big drop in active cases.
Unfortunately, total Deaths has long been and continues on a very steady increase. Only when this line begins to curve to the horizontal will the initial wave of infection begin to deline.
This was broken out, again, for better scaling because the variation is simply lost at other scales.
Notably, this graph has a very different curve to it than the one for the whole USA.
One interesting thing to observe here are the sharp down-peaks to a pretty consistent value. The down values represent health-care organizations that don't report on Sundays! And the consistency of that gives a good idea regarding how many don't report on Sundays.
If one takes some simple averages to get rid of the non-reporting periods, daily deaths were rising gently until around the third week of April, when a very modest lowering trend developed, but overall, it's not a great showing for the state, and things appear to be trending worse in very recent times.
As an exercise for the curious, grab the CSV data file we provide and point it to your favorite "calc" program like, Microsoft Office's Excel, or "Calc" in OpenOffice, or, our favorite, Libre-Office Calc, and pick a start date, select the columns and have it calculate a sum for these. Then divide that number by how many days you've selected and you can easily compute the average over any period you wish, and thereby get rid of those pesky peaks and valleys for any period you choose. ... It has been suggested we do a "rolling week" average - or something like it - but before we do the work, we'd like to hear if here's significant interest in that, and if so, for which data sets.
The concept behind "Case Doublings" is to try and get a handle on whether one is winning the war against a pandemic or not. It's driven by how many cases of confirmed infection are recorded. It's simple: From today, looking to the past, how long has it been since we had half as many cases as we have today? That is, today represents a doubling from what day in the past?
One can also look at it in a forward direction but the information isn't as useful beacuse it jumps around lot due to subtle variations in the day-to-day number of reported cases. And, that also tends to obscure the scale. In contrast, looking backwards always gives a stable line because the daily variations shown and discussed above aren't present.
What's important isn't so much the actual time to doubling but that the time to double keeps increasing. If it starts to get longer faster, you're improving things, and if it starts to get longer slower, you're making things worse, and if it ever goes flat, be very worried, and if it drops, you've really screwed up!
We're worried about Florida. Note, in particular, how the doubling time has notably not only stopped rising, it's actually gone down in hte last few dais - the first few days after lockdown - "Stay At Home" - ended. This illustrates that the state is on the cusp of a disaster; if things continue this way, the state will regret having the stay-at-home order end.
That said, he initial curve of this line shows that the lockdown worked in Florida as there's a significant upeard shift a few days after it took effect.
From there, the doubling times continue to increase, but aren't really that high, and this is bad.
What's important about this graph is that for a state to be doing well, the line needs to keep increasing - whatever the exact doubling time is is less important the longer things go on. However, Florida has stopped going up and is even now going back down, a VERY troubling trend.
Do let us know what you think or even make requests or ask questions! Please either comment on our main Covid-19 page's comment section, email us, or perhaps, as we're an all volunteer team, donate to our cause.