Copyright © 2016 - 2020, The Troy Press
Copyright © 2016 - 2020, The Troy Press
This page is a part of our broader Covid-19 coverage:
The state's stay-at-home order started on April 1 and ended on April 30. It reopened certain businesses through much of the state on May 4 except in the counties of Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach. The Florida Keys will not reopen to visitors until at least June, county commissioners said.
The only of these to ever drop is the number of active cases, which is bound to go down some day. So, other than active cases, it's the rate of change that's important. Most of our other graphs are focused on showing you these changes in the right scale since here, any squiggle from one day to the next is pretty well lost to the eye.
These data were created by taking the daily values for the data used to create the Totals graph above, and comparing with the previous day's value and computing the difference. New Cases and Newly Active cases closely match most of the time and this is because testing is nearly exclusively being done on those people who present themselves for health care. (And, folks, this is definitely "doing it wrong.") However, when people recover (or die), that also has an impact on the daily changes to the number of active cases, and therefore the change from one day to the next which drives how these data are collected.
Overall, Post-Lockdown, Florida's gently lowering the numbers of cases showing up in its medical facilities, and that's good. The huge negative spike in newly active cases along with a big spike in recoveries was a VERY notable occurance. The USA as a whole experienced a similar thing around May 12 and Florida contributed to it. This is the kind of thing we're hoping to see in the numbers everwhere and a lot more frequently.
The purpose of this graph is to show two values also shown on the "Totals" graph above with much better scaling. These are the total deaths and the total recovered cases. The recovered cases line is basically horizontal for a while because of how long people are sick before recovering; it takes a while before there are significant numbers of people recovering, which we see begin to happen in big numbers around May 12. But, puzzling, is, unlike other states, there are some recoveries in notable numbers a full month apart and not more regularly? It's not as if everyone got sick on the same day, so that needs some explaining.
The "New" lines are all shown with better scaling in the graph above, and are included here for better comparison with total recoveries and deaths. Here we see the unsurprising correlation between new recoveries and a huge increase in the total recovered cases, with a corresponding, but not as big drop in active cases.
This was broken out, again, for better scaling because the variation is simply lost at other scales.
Notably, this graph has a very different curve to it than the one for the whole USA.
One interesting thing to observe here are the sharp down-peaks to a pretty consistent value. The down values represent health-care organizations that don't report on Sundays! And the consistency of that gives a good idea regarding how many don't report on Sundays!
As an exercise for the curious, grab the CSV data file we provide and point it to your favorite "calc" program like, Microsoft Office's Excel, or "Calc" in OpenOffice, or, our favorite, Libre-Office Calc, and pick a start date, select the columns and have it calculate a sum for these. Then divide that number by how many days you've selected and you can easily compute the average over any period you wish, and thereby get rid of those pesky peaks and valleys for any period you choose. ... It has been suggested we do a "rolling week" average - or something like it - but before we do the work, we'd like to hear if here's significant interest in that, and if so, for which data sets.
The concept behind "Case Doublings" is to try and get a handle on whether one is winning the war against a pandemic or not. It's driven by how many cases of confirmed infection are recorded. For any given day, there are two questions to be answered:
Looking backwards always gives a stable line because the daily variations shown and discussed above aren't present.
The longer it takes for the number of cases to double, the better you're doing against the pandemic, and the CHANGE in the number of days indicates whether your current actions are helping or hurting.
The looking-back curve shows that the lockdown has worked in Florida as there's a significant upeard shift a few days after it took effect. The doubling times continue to increase, but aren't really that high, and this is bad. Florida's rate of new cases is doubling just a few days longer than a month, at this writing. Can Florida's health-care system sustain double the cases in a month's time?
Since lockdown, the first month showed good improvement, but the future-doubling data strongly suggests - and the past-looking doubling rate agrees - that since the start of may, things are turning for the worse in Florida.
Overall, doubling times are WAY better than when lockdown started, but need to go higher. The future projections look good, but the actual results need improvement.
Do let us know what you think or even make requests or ask questions! Please either comment on our main Covid-19 page's comment section, email us, or perhaps, as we're an all volunteer team, donate to our cause.